Group A is relatively a straightforward group. There are 3 teams that will almost surely make the knockout stage - Aussies, Sri Lanka and Pakistan (despite their recent off-field turmoil, this team knows how to play). The kiwis might have been a shoo-in for the 4th position, but the recent downward trend in their form means they will actually have to fight it out against a resurgent Zimbabwean team. My money is still on the Kiwis to make the cut, but Zimbabweans may still pull of an upset.
Group B is, well, a group of death. 5 good teams, 4 quarterfinal spots and one will surely miss out. Add to the mix, the presence of Ireland, who, surely with Body Rankin and Pottersfield in their ranks have the ability to upset any of the big five on their day, the scenario becomes even more intriguing. Amongst the big five, I would favor the South Africans to cruise to the quarterfinals. But the four others are a mercurial lot. Team India has been relatively steady of late, but their fast bowling and lower order batting is still too fragile. Bangladesh, in my book, is the dark horse. West Indians are an inconsistet bunch, but with the likes of Roach, Gayle, Sarwan and their anchorman Chanderpaul are likely to give anyone a run for their money. The English team were riding a wave of confidence following their Ashes triumph. But alas, injuries to key cricketers and emerging whispers of fatigue means they will probably not be at their best. I would expect them to be the team that misses out (despite a lot of pundits thinking otherwise).
Group A might well turn out in the following order - 1) Sri Lanka 2) Australia 3) Pakistan 4) NZ / Zim
Group B is hard to predict. Depending on the form of the Indian team, the top position would either go to South Africa or India. I would imagine SA to emerge at the top during the league stage. India might come second, or even 3rd depending on how Bangladesh fares. If the Indians come second, expect the Bangladeshis to come third, with the West Indians rounding up the group.
This leaves us with different possibilities of the quarterfinal line ups. The one I think is most likely would be Sri Lanka - West Indies, Australia - Bangladesh, India - Pakistan, New Zealand - South Africa. At this stage it would be anyone's ball game, although Australia and South Africa would be the favorites to reach the semis. However, if things do indeed unfold this way, they would end up facing each other in the semis.
If I had to guess, I would expect an Australia - Sri Lanka final (unless the Proteans shrug off their choking habit!). Both India and Pakistan stand a decent chance of making the final though, depending on whether they are able to beat the Sri Lankans in the semi. Both are capable of that feat, but I feel that the Lankans hold a slight edge due to their solidity.
A short team review -
Australia (they are the defending world champs and ranked No 1 for a reason. Their one-day team looks a lot different from the test outfit. Losing Mike Hussey is a big blow, but they still have Watson in good nick to be backed up by David Hussey. Clarke, I feel, is slowly turning a corner and getting out of a rut. His footwork means he is more likely to come good now on sub-continent pitches as compared to his recent run in Australia. Haddin's aggressive style is more suited to the sub-continent featherbed pitches and the world cup might still be the place where he rediscovers his form. Still quite not an apt replacement for Gilchrist, but a dangerous player nonetheless. The bowling unit has four attackers in Lee, Tait, Johnson and Krejza, with decent back up from White and Smith. In addition, I would tip Watson to be a key bowler too - especially given that he is the only Aussie bowler who has some command on reverse swing. Probably one of the three teams who have the best chance of reaching the final),
Sri Lanka (they have a solid team with match-winners in Sangakarra, Muralitharan and Malinga plus they play in familiar conditions. Dilshan, at the top of the order, hasnt been as consistent as a player of his class should be. But with the Cup being played on the subcontinent, he could still fire on the grounds where he once unveiled his "Dilscoop". Lack of firepower in the middle order might be a problem area, although Angelo Matthews has progressed quietly and could pose a threat. In Jayawardene, they have another experienced bat who paces the innings beautifully, but he needs stay in form through out. All in all, the only chink for Lankans would be the lack of a good fourth bowler. Probably one of the three teams who have the best chance of reaching the final),
South Africa (quality wise, I would back them... but then, they still wear the "chokers" tag, like it or not. Steyn and Morkel have the ability to be the most potent opening attack and both have attributes that will make them a threat despite the pitches. Kallis is a first or second change bowler. Imran Tahir is a new face, paradoxically, with loads of experience, and how he fares might be critical. I would expect both Tahir and Botha to play, with Tahir attacking with his leg spin and Botha going defensive and drying up runs at his end with accurate off spin. SA would do well not to include Lopsy. Lopsy is good, but given his lack of pace and the fact that Indian pitches dont suit his style of swing, I could see him get tonked around if he plays. Robin Peterson is another player whom the Proteas would do well to keep on the bench. A lot depends on whether Graeme Smith and the thinktank have the guts to play two specialist spinners instead of South Africa's formulaic approach to playing 4 fast bowlers. And Faf du Pleiss, if he plays, should do so as a batsman who can be counted to bowl a few overs of leg spin if needed. A cover for Tahir, if Tahir's attacking methods go awry. Smith has an attacking leg spinner in his ranks; to get the most out of him, he needs to give Tahir a fairly long leash. Probably one of the three teams who have the best chance of reaching the final),
Pakistan (they perform well ONLY when the chips are down for them. And if the chips were ever down for them, then it is now. However, this team is still miles adrift of the class of 1992. They lack a bowler as potent as Wasim Akram, although Gul and Shoaib Akhtar, if he strikes form, may cover up. The spinners are good, but are no match for Mushtaq at his pomp. Even so, in familiar conditions, they will still be a handful. The batting looks better than many of their past line ups, but Younis Khan and Misbah notwithstanding, they still lack a player of Inzamam's calibre. Plus, as a skipper, Afridi is no Imran which is probably going to be the biggest difference. Pakistan should make the quarter-finals, given that they are in an easy group. Semi-finals are realistic too and an appearance in final is still within the realm of likelihood, although for an unpredictable bunch like this, I will reserve my opinion),
India (again, the team has class in batting , given the subcontinent conditions for this Cup. but the form book does not favor them. Gambhir, Sehwag and Sachin havent played much one dayers of late and might need some time to get in their groove. Their class remains unquestioned though, especially on familiar pitches. The middle order bats are a unpredictable bunch, especially given the recent dip Yuvraj and Dhoni's form. The spinners are good, but not exceptional like the earlier teams which had Kumble. The fast bowlers are prone to getting tonked, with the exception of Zaheer. Yet, this team has a rare bloody-minded tenacity that was absent from the teams of the 20th century and enough matchwinners who can turn the game single handed to make them the most unpredictable team in the Cup, possibly after Pakistan. A semi-final finish is a realistic prospect, and an appearance in final may not be out of bounds).
West Indies (yet another unpredictable team, but one, I suspect does not have enough firepower in the bowling department to go all the way. Quarterfinal should be the basic minimum for them, but a semi-final finish is not unlikely. Gayle, Sarwan and Samuels can all be a force in the one dayers. Pollard is exciting too, although I hope he doesnt follow the footsteps of Ricardo Powell. The bowling looks thin to me, with only Kemar Roach looking like a genuine threat on the subcontinent pitches. Suleiman Benn could yet have a good world cup, and that would help West Indies, but quite simply, they lack the class to progress beyond semi-finals),
England (they are tired. Quite simply, that means they have a real chance of getting knocked out in the group stage. Pietersen should come good. After all, this man is keyed on to te IPL and what better stage than India to show the IPL bigwigs that he deserves better. Bell is another player I feel will do well. The rest are really tired. Andrew Strauss is. Eoin Morgan, the one player who could have provided the fire works is nursing an injury. Stuart Broad isnt quite Freddie Flintoff, and he might have trouble filling Freddie's enforcer role. Anderson is a much improved bowler, and could yet be a threat with the new ball. Chris Tremlett is another bowler who should be relatively fresh. I feel the onus of being the enforcer should fall on Tremlett rather than Broad. Realistically, England needs an anchor who will bat until the end, and let all others play their shots around him. This is where I think they missed a trick by ignoring Cook. After all, that man is in prime form and was their best batsman in their most recent triumph, never mind it was a test),
Bangladesh (a lot depends on Tamim Iqbal's form with the bat. They have spinners who can choke out the opposition, although their pace attack is likely to be wanting, never mind the return of Mortaza. Ashraful may shine in the odd game, but Bangladesh will do well to go in with a plan B that anticipates Ashraful to fail. Quarterfinals is a distinct possibility, and semi-finals may not be out of reach. But they need to wait some more before they see themselves in the finals).
NewZealand (the Kiwis are in a temporary rut. They have the talent to upset the applecarts of many teams. Ross Taylor, Jesse Ryder, Brendon McCullum are all class acts. I would expect Ryder to shine, and for the Kiwi's sake hope Taylor and McCullum come good as well. In Guptill, they seem to have found a player who can anchor the innings. In James Franklin, they have one of the most underrated all rounders. Franklin's batting, combined with Styris provides a solidity to their lower order. Oram's return should boost the team too. And then there is captain Dan who has been New Zealands "to go" man in almost all situations. His bowling especially will be critical. Nate McCullum and Jeetan Patel would need to contribute as well. Southee still has some way to go before he succeds on the subcontinent conditions. The absence of bowlers like Bond and Geoff Allot will be the main issue with the Kiwis. Plus, the presence of a charismatic player liek Chris Cairns would have helped. Unfortunately, these players have hung up their shoes, and those are pretty big boots to be filled by the current crop. Nevertheless, given their track record in World Cup, one cant write them off. Quarterfinals is likely. Semis might be a long shot).
5 out of 14 teams have a fantastic chance of lifting the Cup - South Africa, Sri Lanka, Australia, India and Pakistan, probably in that order. After a long long time, this is going to be one hell of an open World Cup.
